Discrete Dynamics in Nature and Society
Volume 7 (2002), Issue 4, Pages 231-239
doi:10.1155/S1026022602000262
Markov chain analysis of weekly rainfall data in determining drought-proneness
Pabitra Banik1
, Abhyudy Mandal1
and M.Sayedur Rahman3
1Agricultural Science Unit, Indian Statistical Institute, Calcutta 700 035, India
3Associate Professor, Department of Statistics, Rajshahi University, Bangladesh
Abstract
Markov chain models have been used to evaluate probabilities of getting a sequence of wet and dry weeks during South-West monsoon period over the districts Purulia in West Bengal and Giridih in Bihar state and dry farming tract in the state of Maharashtra of India. An index based on the parameters of this model has been suggested to indicate the extend of drought-proneness of a region. This study will be useful to agricultural planners and irrigation engineers to identifying the areas where agricultural development should be focused as a long term drought mitigation strategy. Also this study will contribute toward a better understanding of the climatology of drought in a major drought-prone region of the world.